By Rebecca Rayko
LAS VEGAS, Nevada - Things are pretty much status quo in the helicopter industry, which is to say they are good and expected to get even better.
There was positive energy about Heli Expo 2000, reflecting the relative health of the worldwide helicopter industry, but this was tempered by some cautious optimism as indicated in two major industry forecasts released at the convention.
The Rolls-Royce annual forecast of worldwide turbine helicopter demand predicts a slight upturn in sales compared to last year's forecast. Rolls predicts a 1% increase in unit deliveries over the period from 2000-2009, or some 9,036 turbine helicopter deliveries during that span.
On a unit basis, 60% of the helicopter deliveries will be civil (5,403), with the remaining 40% (3,633) being military.
Turbine singles will lead the civil market with 56% of the total worldwide deliveries, followed by light twins at 20%. Civil deliveries are expected to peak around 579 units in 2001, and then decline to about 530 airframes per year thereafter.
"The civil market continues to be supported by new model introductions and a strong economy," said Rolls-Royce Helicopters vice president of customer operations, Richard Huckle.
Increased travel requirements, coupled with airport and airspace congestion, may also result in an increase in the number of corporate operators.
Military deliveries will increase 3% compared with last year's forecast. Nearly half of all military deliveries will be heavy multi-engine rotorcraft, followed by attack helicopters at 28%.
Meanwhile, Honeywell reined in its growth forecast compared with last year. The company now predicts worldwide fleet growth at 2.5% per year for the next 10-year period, compared with 3% annually projected at Heli Expo '99.
In its third annual helicopter market outlook, Honeywell (the survey was previously released by AlliedSignal) projects deliveries of 2,300 new helicopters from 2000-2004.
The underlying theme of Honeywell's forecast is market stability, generated by increasing interest in new and derivative helicopter models. Derivatives will account for more than 43% of purchases over the next five years.
Strong economies in the West and a changing regulatory environment in Asia will also fuel steady but modest growth. Fleet replacement for aging aircraft is another growth stimulator, the survey found.
Tiltrotor technology appears to be generating interest within the civil helicopter market. Orders and the subsequent production plant for the Bell Agusta BA609 have cleared up some initial uncertainties about the acceptance of tiltrotor aircraft in both the corporate and private market sectors.
The range, speed and efficient point-to-point operation, if underscored by safe operation, will affect some traditional applications and sales going forward.
