Here's what to expect. Once again the organizers at the Society of British Aerospace Companies expect an exciting show with record attendance from both the exhibitors and the spectators, although some would argue the atmosphere is slightly less charged than during the 1996 event.
When the industry last gathered at Farnborough it was riding the tide of newly found prosperity, placing an unprecedented $12 billion in orders and showcasing its newest and brightest products to the world. This year's show takes place amidst a shaky worldwide economy whose roots have begun to take hold in the aerospace industry. A crisis once contained in Asia has found its way to Russia, Latin America and the United States, and the uncertainties facing the world's financial markets have begun to reach within the industry itself.
While most say the next industry downturn will not be as severe as the post-Gulf War years
earlier this decade, there are signs that the world's financial woes have begun to be reflected
by the industry. The world's largest aerospace company is facing dramatic financial and
production problems. Most analysts say the industry's peak is either near or has already
arrived and the downward cycle has begun. Others wonder where the new technology is and why
the lack of new products launches at Farnborough? Must we wait the reported five or so years
for next generation product launches? Prior to the show many industry observers felt that there would
be "shockingly little" happening. The order everyone had been waiting for from British
Airways was announced two weeks before the show. United Parcel Service's Airbus A300s seem
to be the most talked about anticipated order on the cargo side, but this has been rumored
for months. Plus, if you can believe this, an order from striking Northwest Airlines,
currently providing plenty of runway taxi time for other airlines in its hub cities in
America, was still rumored.
Well, folks, we believe you can still expect drama to unfold during this week's daily
coverage.
In fact, once again AeroWorldNet will continue with its very conservative style and go out on a limb to
project the week's order volume. After considering our list of possible orders, checking the wind
and tossing a few chicken bones into the air we forecast a total order value of $8 billion will
be announced during this year's show. That won't be the only excitement, however.
Consider Boeing and Airbus. The two will go at it during the show with orders, competitive responses and defensive positions. Airbus is expected to still be celebrating its British Airways order coup, while Boeing will try to downplay its recent spate of problems, emphasizing more its restructuring efforts and its bright new future. The momentum has clearly shifted in the big commercial aircraft arena.
Embraer and Bombardier are expected to continue their long-running feud, complete with reports of the efforts of their respective countries to alternately join the battle and quell the flames. Embraer will show off its RJ135 for the first time. Bombardier will likely accuse the Brazilian manufacturer of having built the plane with recycled Molson cans. This year the two regional combatants are joined by a third, Fairchild Dornier, with its recently announced 728JET family. The industry is waiting to see if this "Johnny come lately" will have a strong break out of the blocks. In any case, get ready for order mania as the regional jet market continues to strengthen.
Military aircraft are always in evidence, but noticeably absent this year are the Russians. While here in token form - Sukhoi's Su-27 and Mikoyan's MiG-29SMT will fly - there will not likely be the heart-stopping aerobatics of previous major air shows. Credit the flagging Russian economy for this disappearing act. Count on the American F-16 and F/A-18, the French Rafale, the European Eurofighter (newly named, "Typhoon") and the Saab/BAe Gripen to add plenty of noise and excitement in the air.
Business jets will be everywhere. Dassault and its Falcon, Bombardier and its Global Express and Challenger, Gulfstream and its G series, plus a few more, like Galaxy. A few surprises and plenty of orders are expected.
Helicopters are also a part of the show. The Bell 609 Tiltrotor should continue to get attention, if not produce a spate of recent orders. Two helicopters will be seen for the first time anywhere. The Boeing Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche and the Kazan Ansat are both being shown in prototype form.
Missiles, space, general aviation. They'll all be represented although there are not expected to be any major announcements at this year's show in any of the three categories.
All in all, this promises to be like many of the Farnborough Air Shows that preceded it. The only question will be which companies will be making the news and which will be just reading it?